Monday, November 10, 2008

How important was the ground game?

According to our friends at 538, very important. Per 538, an exit poll consortium asked voters whether they had been contacted by the McCain or Obama camps prior to voting. It turns out that in 12 states that were rated highly competitive going into the election, Obama held the 'contact' advantage in all but one state.

% of Voters Reporting Direct Contact from Campaigns
ST Obama McCain Gap
NV 50% 29% 21%
CO 51% 34% 17%
IN 37% 22% 15%
VA 50% 38% 12%
PA 50% 39% 11%
IA 41% 30% 11%
FL 29% 20% 9%
NC 34% 26% 8%
MO 44% 37% 7%
OH 43% 36% 7%
WI 42% 39% 3%
WV 29% 31% -2%

And as we know, Obama won 10 of the 12 states shown here. Hence, we can expect the Republicans to try to copy Obama's ground game strategy in 2012.

For the full article, go to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/contact-gap-proof-of-importance-of.html

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